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Q4 GDP Data Due at 1200GMT / 0700ET

BRAZIL
  • After testing the 5.00 level on the open yesterday, USDBRL settled back towards the middle of its familiar short-term range, closing around 4.97. Despite piercing the 5.00 level in early February, this technical pivot continues to cap the topside for USDBRL overall for now. Initial key support to watch lies at 4.9025, the Jan 26 low. With USDBRL remaining in a tight range through the last month, one-month implied volatility sunk to 8.987% yesterday, a new multi-year low.
  • On the data front, Brazil GDP is expected to have risen by 0.1% q/q in Q4, with the annual rate increasing slightly to 2.2% y/y, from 2.0% in Q3 (1200GMT / 0700ET). This would take full-year growth to 3.0%. Manufacturing PMI data for February will also cross at 1300GMT (prior 52.8). Earlier, IPC-S CPI rose by 0.55% m/m in the month ending February 29th, following a 0.60% increase previously. Food prices rose by 1.06% m/m, vs. 1.18% the week before.
  • Meanwhile, BCB Monetary Policy Director Gabriel Galipolo will give a lecture at an event held by Money Report today.
    • 4Q GDP QoQ, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
    • 4Q GDP YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.0%
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