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Q4 GDP Expected To Contract

THAILAND

Q4 GDP is released later and Bloomberg consensus expects it to decline 0.1% q/q with the annual rate improving to 2.6% from 1.5% but that would show that 2023 slowed to 2.2% from 2.6%, a rate well below the rest of ASEAN.

  • Estimates for Q4 growth are between 1.2% and 3.6% y/y with most 2.5-3.0% and for 2023 as a whole between 1.8% and 2.4% with most around 2.0-2.2%. Quarterly estimates are in a wide range of -1.3% to +0.4% q/q.
  • Goldman Sachs is forecasting a larger-than-consensus drop of 0.4% q/q due to weak manufacturing indicators and flat services activity. Citicorp expects -0.1% q/q, HSBC +0.1% q/q and Standard Chartered +0.4%.
  • Also today the Bank of Thailand speaks on Q4 and 2023 banking performance and the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce discusses the 2024 export outlook.
  • The baht has started the weak slightly stronger with USDTHB down 0.2% to 35.95 after finishing last week up 0.3% to 36.02. SE Thai was down marginally on Friday.
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