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Q4 Growth Close To Expected, Exports/Capex Offset Construction Weakness

SOUTH KOREA

Q4 GDP (advanced estimates) was reasonably close to estimates. Q/Q growth was +0.6% (in line with), with prior at 0.6% as well. Y/Y growth printed at 2.2%, slightly above the 2.1% consensus and a pick up on Q3's 1.4% pace. Full year 2023 growth was 1.4%.

  • On the industry side, the main drag came from construction which fell by 3.6% q/q. Manufacturing rose 1.1% q/q, while services increased by 0.6% q/q. in y/y terms manufacturing rose 6.5%, construction was -2.2% and services +1.1%.
  • This aligns with the GDP expenditure side. Exports (+2.6%q/q) and capital investment (+3.0%q/q) were the main positive, while construction investment fell -4.2% q/q. Private consumption growth was a more modest 0.2% as well.
  • These trends align with the BoK narrative around the drivers of growth. Domestic growth may only turn firmer once BoK shifts to easier policy settings.
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