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Free AccessMNI: Fed's Quarles Sees Upside Risks to Inflation
A strong U.S. economic recovery means inflation risks are tilted to the upside even though a recent spike is likely temporary, Federal Reserve Vice Chair For Supervision Randal Quarles said Wednesday.
"My optimistic outlook for growth and employment places me among those who see the risks to inflation over the medium term as weighted to the upside, relative to my baseline forecast," Quarles said in prepared remarks to a Brookings Institution conference.
"I expect rapid growth to continue for some time before slowing to a still robust pace next year."
Quarles said signs of a recent spike in inflation, which included a 4.2% jump in consumer prices in the year to April, was probably transitory, driven in part by supply bottlenecks that will subside.
"I agree with the widespread view among my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee and most private forecasters that the recent rise in inflation to well above 2% is driven by temporary factors," he said. "I expect inflation to begin subsiding at some point over the next several months and to be running close to 2% again at some point during 2022."
THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT TAPERING
Still, he argued that strong growth expectations warranted some consideration of how the Fed will begin winding down its monthly USD120 billion monthly asset purchases.
"If my expectations about economic growth, employment, and inflation over the coming months are borne out, however, and especially if they come in stronger than I expect, then, as noted in the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, it will become important for the FOMC to begin discussing our plans to adjust the pace of asset purchases at upcoming meetings," Quarles said.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told MNI in a recent interview the central bank is closely watching inflation expectations for hints that they might become unanchored.
Quarles said inflation expectations had been climbing but only to levels seen in the early 2010s, "after which inflation never ran consistently above 2%."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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