Questions Over Time Before New TMX Capacity Fills: Platts

Questions surround how long before the expanded TMX pipeline will fill its new capacity, creating a new bottleneck for Canadian crude, according to Platts.

• "Some say it is two years and others say it's as many as five or six. But at some point, we will fill up TMX, but I don't think anybody will be of the view that we will get another pipeline soon in Western Canada."
• Others expect Canada to have sufficient capacity until 2030.
• Platts estimate that Canadian heavy production will ramp up by a further 0.5m b/d in 2025/26.
• However, TMX should be supportive of production for Heavy oils, with strong PAD II (US Midwest) demand likely underestimated and requiring additional capacity.