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Quicktake: Barclays on CPI

US DATA
Barclays economists say June CPI is "past it's peak, but still firm" in latest research note ahead Fri's data.
  • Barclays estimates headline CPI "to have increased 0.5% m/m in June (5.0% y/y) and the NSA index to be 270.723. We expect core CPI to rise 0.48% m/m and 4.1% y/y (from 0.7% and 3.8%, respectively, in May), driven by strong increases in goods and services prices. To our eye, it appears the impulse to inflation peaked in April."
  • "The pace of monthly core CPI inflation will likely slow compared with April and May as the sharp increases in categories such as used cars, airline fares, and hotels should decelerate from their highs of the past few months. If so, this would suggest that inflationary pressures peaked in April."
That said, Barclays said "as the economy continues to re-open and activity rebounds, we expect price pressures in the economy to remain elevated throughout the summer months, pushing annual headline and core CPI to historical highs."
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