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SOUTH KOREA

BoK Growth Forecast Could Be At Risk

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Ahead next week Thu's GDP growth figures for Q2, JP Morgan economists lower their forecast from 9.0% to 8.0%, citing GDP source reports that have "generally have disappointed on net in recent weeks and we have been noting downside risk to our GDP forecast for Q2."
  • Meanwhile, JPM maintains their "GDP outlook unchanged beyond Q2, with our forecast continuing to look for 8.25% annualized real GDP growth in Q3."
  • "Our somewhat weaker tracking of inventory investment in Q2 might normally imply some upside risk to GDP in Q3, as restocking needs would be that much greater. However, we are nudging down our projection for final sales in Q3. The Delta variant may impart a little more caution in consumer behavior, and we are adjusting our Q3 real consumption forecast lower from 5.0% to 4.5% to better balance risks around our outlook."