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Quicktake on NFP: Citi

US DATA
Twice the median estimate, Citi economists expect Feb jobs to climb 410,000 Friday.
  • The reference period for the February payrolls report sits on the brink of new re-openings after increased activity restrictions and business closures over the winter months (in this sense, we expect an upside surprise similar to the May 2020 report). Strength in our forecast is tied to rehiring of leisure and hospitality employees.
  • Employment data will likely become increasingly important over the coming months, as a strong rise in employment will be key to meeting the Fed's "substantial further progress" requirement for a possible tapering of asset purchases. February jobs data, however, could be less important than upcoming reports, as another downside surprise could be dismissed as being too soon to see re-opening job gains.
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