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Quicktake: RBS on June CPI

US DATA

Citing "broad-based gains in food, energy and the core (excluding food and energy) measure" RBS NatWest economists estimate "core CPI to have advanced by 0.5% (0.467%) in June, moderating slightly from the 0.9% surge in April and 0.7% jump in May but well above its pre-pandemic 10-year average monthly gain of +0.2%."

  • A reading in line with our monthly estimate will keep headline CPI inflation steady at a 13-year high of 5.0% y/y in June. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation could have picked up further, rising from 3.8% y/y in May to 4.0% y/y in June, which would match a 30-year high.
  • Going forward, RBS NatWest expects "base effects to start reversing, with both the headline and core measures set to moderate somewhat by year end."
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