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Quicktake: UBS on Sep Employment

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Prior to this morning's better than expected ADP private jobs gain of 568k vs. +430k est, UBS economists said they expected job growth to "rebound from faster re-employment trends and less Covid."
  • We think fading Covid trends will be a big swing factor aiding leisure and other service employment resulting in a 635k gain in September. The continued signs of strong labor demand from openings data and surveys lead us to expect a grind higher in reemployment rates.
  • Fading labor market headwinds also support a faster re-employment rate trend We see evidence in both the job and household survey that the UI policy changes have led to faster employment trends. We think the fading childcare/school disruptions on net should be also supportive in September."

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