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Race For 2nd Place Becomes A Three-Way Tie As Zemmour Recovers In Polls

FRANCE

Following a collapse in support in late 2021, far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour has recorded a recovery in his opinion polling support that sees the race for second place in the 10 April French presidential election first round become a three-way tie.

  • Ifop-Fiducial poll: Presidential election Macron (LREM): 25% (-1), Zemmour (Ind.): 16.5% (+0.5), Le Pen (RN): 16% (-0.5), Pécresse (LR): 15%, Mélenchon (LFI): 10.5% (-0.5). +/- vs. 10-14 February 2022. Fieldwork: 15-18 February 2022. Sample size: 1,505
  • In polling for hypothetical second-round contests, the incumbent Macron leads in all. Against Zemmour, Macron holds a 62%:38% lead, against Pecresse an 56%:44% advantage, and his margin over Marine Le Pen is the lowest at 55%:45% according to the same Ifop-Fiducial survey.
  • Despite Le Pen's deficit to Macron being the narrowest, the conservative Pecresse would likely prove the toughest challenge for Macron. The two far-right candidates (Zemmour and Le Pen) have a much narrower pool of potential voters to win over, whereas Pecresse may be able to secure both the support of the right but also anti-Macron moderates in a hypothetical second-round contest.
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