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Rand Firms With Commodity Complex, South Africa's CPI Provides Downside Surprise

ZAR

Spot USD/ZAR has traded with a bearish bias today, shrugging off the release of below-forecast South African CPI data. Broader greenback weakness has contributed to losses in the rate, which last deals at ZAR16.9711, down ~780 pips on the day. Bears look for a slide past Jan 12 low of ZAR16.6950, while topside focus falls on Jan 6 high of ZAR17.4343.

  • Headline consumer inflation decelerated to +7.2% Y/Y in December from +7.4% prior, printing below the +7.3% forecast. Core inflation slowed to +4.9% Y/Y from +5.0% recorded in November and versus +5.1% expected. Despite the slight let-up in price pressures, headline inflation remained above the SARB's tolerance band, calling for continued vigilance from the central bank.
  • Local-currency bond yields have declined, curve has steepened. South Africa's 10-year breakeven inflation rate sits at 6.13% after printing its worst levels of the week.
  • Bloomberg Commodity Index has added ~0.8% today, with the precious metals subindex up ~0.4% on the session, as gold has reversed its earlier losses.
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