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Range Trade As Fiscal Drama Recedes

US TSYS SUMMARY

Tsys have traded well within Monday's relatively wide ranges and on low volumes (TYH1<165k) so far Tuesday.

  • A feel of tentative stability vs the previous session, with the long-awaited $2.3T relief/stimulus bills agreed by Congress overnight, and most attention in European trading on COVID lockdown impact and Brexit talks (mixed news as ever).
  • Early flattening has dissipated and curve largely flat. The 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.121%, 5-Yr is unchanged at 0.3798%, 10-Yr is up 0.2bps at 0.9363%, and 30-Yr is up 0.1bps at 1.6736%.
  • Mar 10-Yr futures (TY) up 1/32 at 137-25.5 (L: 137-25 / H: 137-30.5)
  • Pres Trump is yet to sign the deals but expected to do so by Dec 28. Attention already turning to the question: is the relief funding sufficient?
  • Third reading of Q3 GDP unlikely to move the needle (no chg expected) at 0830ET. Dec Consumer Confidence, Nov Existing Home Sales and Dec Richmond Fed Manuf at 1000ET the more consequential sets of data.
  • In supply, 1130ET sees $60B in 42-/119-day bill auction, with 5Y TIPS Re-Open for $15B at 1300ET. NY Fed buys ~$1.750B of 20-30Y Tsys.
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

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