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Rapid QT Ahead

US TSYS
Heavy whipsaw action following March FOMC minutes, curves holding steeper even as bonds climbing off lows again well after the closing bell.
  • The Federal Reserve will begin rapidly shrinking its USD8.9T balance sheet starting as early as May as part of a broader tightening campaign that has officials considering one or more 50BP rate hikes this year, minutes from the central bank's March meeting showed.
  • Very short end grappling with pricing in prospect of more aggressive policy if inflation persists (CPI +7.9% March YoY while the Fed's preferred PCE measure +6.4% in Feb YoY). "Many participants noted that one or more 50 basis point increases in the target range could be appropriate at future meetings, particularly if inflation pressures remained elevated or intensified."
  • Remains to be seen whether he can say anything new to make markets react but StL Fed Bullard will talk about US economy/mon-pol at U of Missouri event tomorrow at 0900ET, text and Q&A.
  • Economic data on tap for Thursday at 0830ET:
    • Initial Jobless Claims (202k, 200k), Continuing Claims (1.307M, 1.302M)
    • Apr-7 1500 Consumer Credit ($6.838B, $18.100B) late in session at 1500ET
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 2bps at 2.4939%, 5-Yr is up 0bps at 2.6956%, 10-Yr is up 5.3bps at 2.5994%, and 30-Yr is up 4.8bps at 2.6212%.
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