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Rate decision as expected; no reference to insurance cut / removal of insurance hike

ECB
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  • So rate decision as expected.
  • Guidance references "data-dependency" going forward and saying it is not pre-committing.
  • No reference in the statement to this being an insurance cut or removal of an insurance hike - which would have been much more hawkish - just a reference that rates being restrictive has helped inflation come down and that rates remain restrictive.
  • The initial market reaction has not thus far been huge and seems to be due to the fact the ECB hasn't pre-committed to the start of a series of cuts while inflation forecasts are both higher than previous and higher than expected.
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  • So rate decision as expected.
  • Guidance references "data-dependency" going forward and saying it is not pre-committing.
  • No reference in the statement to this being an insurance cut or removal of an insurance hike - which would have been much more hawkish - just a reference that rates being restrictive has helped inflation come down and that rates remain restrictive.
  • The initial market reaction has not thus far been huge and seems to be due to the fact the ECB hasn't pre-committed to the start of a series of cuts while inflation forecasts are both higher than previous and higher than expected.