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US TSYS: Rates & Stocks Still Prone to Headline Sensitivity

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Markets remain sensitive to headline risk Wednesday, stocks and rates sold off after early headlines reported Trump is considering declaring a state of emergency to enact universal tariffs (opposite reaction from Monday's early rally on WAPO article that suggested a watered down tariff plan). Mar'25 10Y futures breached round number support to 107-28.5 low, 10Y yield hit a high of 4.7280% on the move.
  • Rates and stocks bounced after Fed Gov Waller argued for further rate cuts if the economy unfolds as expected, while adding he doesn't see tariffs as being inflationary. Mar'25 10Y futures climbed to 108-09 while curves climbed to new/near 3Y highs (2s10s 42.887, 5s30s 48.363).
  • Muted reaction to jobless claims data that were on balance a little better than expected (201k vs. 215k est), ADP employment was softer than expected in December at 122k (cons 140k) after an unrevised 146k in Nov.
  • Risk sentiment cooled slightly after the December FOMC minutes underscored a shift toward a slower pace in cutting rates citing rising upside risks to inflation and elevated uncertainty over potential changes in trade and immigration policy from incoming Republican leadership.
  • Reminder: Open outcry and CME Globex trading session for interest rate products will have an early close of 1300 ET and 1315ET, respectively on January 9, 2025. All transactions submitted on CME ClearPort will have normal hours. Settlement prices will be derived at 1300ET. Sole data point tomorrow: Challenger Job Cuts at 0730ET; Tsy 4- and 8W bill auctions, and several Fed speakers through the day.
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  • Markets remain sensitive to headline risk Wednesday, stocks and rates sold off after early headlines reported Trump is considering declaring a state of emergency to enact universal tariffs (opposite reaction from Monday's early rally on WAPO article that suggested a watered down tariff plan). Mar'25 10Y futures breached round number support to 107-28.5 low, 10Y yield hit a high of 4.7280% on the move.
  • Rates and stocks bounced after Fed Gov Waller argued for further rate cuts if the economy unfolds as expected, while adding he doesn't see tariffs as being inflationary. Mar'25 10Y futures climbed to 108-09 while curves climbed to new/near 3Y highs (2s10s 42.887, 5s30s 48.363).
  • Muted reaction to jobless claims data that were on balance a little better than expected (201k vs. 215k est), ADP employment was softer than expected in December at 122k (cons 140k) after an unrevised 146k in Nov.
  • Risk sentiment cooled slightly after the December FOMC minutes underscored a shift toward a slower pace in cutting rates citing rising upside risks to inflation and elevated uncertainty over potential changes in trade and immigration policy from incoming Republican leadership.
  • Reminder: Open outcry and CME Globex trading session for interest rate products will have an early close of 1300 ET and 1315ET, respectively on January 9, 2025. All transactions submitted on CME ClearPort will have normal hours. Settlement prices will be derived at 1300ET. Sole data point tomorrow: Challenger Job Cuts at 0730ET; Tsy 4- and 8W bill auctions, and several Fed speakers through the day.