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Rates Pause For Breath After Recent Inversion Tilt

CANADA
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  • GoCs broadly track in line with Treasuries after yesterday’s large rally (2yy -9bps, 10YY -13bps), trading 1-1.5bps cheaper at the front-end to belly and 2.5-3bps cheaper further out.
  • There’s a similar story in very early trading for BAX futures, only modestly cheaper and holding onto new record levels of inversion through both 2023 and 1H24 (-0.90 and -1.06 for BAH3/Z3 and BAZ3/M4).
  • Impetus again possible from US data at 0830ET with further housing data, Philly Fed mfg and weekly jobless claims hitting at the time as Canadian Teranet/National Bank house prices and wholesale trade.
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  • GoCs broadly track in line with Treasuries after yesterday’s large rally (2yy -9bps, 10YY -13bps), trading 1-1.5bps cheaper at the front-end to belly and 2.5-3bps cheaper further out.
  • There’s a similar story in very early trading for BAX futures, only modestly cheaper and holding onto new record levels of inversion through both 2023 and 1H24 (-0.90 and -1.06 for BAH3/Z3 and BAZ3/M4).
  • Impetus again possible from US data at 0830ET with further housing data, Philly Fed mfg and weekly jobless claims hitting at the time as Canadian Teranet/National Bank house prices and wholesale trade.