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US TSY FLOWS: Rates recovered, extended NY session highs on heavy month end
buying, almost 20% of session volume trades in TYZ in the 5 minutes leading up
to the pit close. Decent block buys in 2s, 5s, 10s and ultra-bonds supported
move. After the bell, 30YY down to 1.9573% on the move, still no where near
Wed's all-time low of 1.9052%.
- Trade and geopol risks underpinning rates as Tsys clawed back to mildly higher
levels by midmorning, equities pared gains/trade lower late. Who wants to be
short safe havens ahead long weekend?
- Two-way flow on net, early flattener unwinds in short end vs. 10s, swap-tied
buying in 2s,3s and 4s selling in 10s. No new deal-tied hedging, moderate option
- Markets still price in 100% chance of a 25bp rate cut at the September 17-18
FOMC, but chances of a 50bps cut have slipped back to around the mid-teens from
54.9% a week ago.
- The 2-Yr yield is down 1.6bps at 1.504%, 5-Yr is down 1.1bps at 1.3849%, 10-Yr
is up 0.2bps at 1.4961%, and 30-Yr is down 0.3bps at 1.9613%.