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Rates: Severe Pressure Back On The DI Curve

LATAM
  • A continuation of negative price action for Brazil local rates, with Jan '23s seen close to 80bps higher on the session. Analysts appear unclear of what the BCB thinks of proposed fiscal changes and what they mean for neutral rates.
  • Additional headlines hit the wires today claiming the Government may issue a new decree declaring a state of calamity due to Covid-19, which would make room in the budget for spending above the spending cap. This is if the Auxilio Brasil bill proposal were to fail in congress.
  • Elsewhere, the Chilean Camara curve has significantly flattened following the BCCh minutes earlier today. The intention to place the MPR around its neutral value in the next meeting prompted the front-end to shift higher in the region of 15 basis points, however, drove a relief rally in the long end.
  • Brazil DI Swaps:
    • Jan '23 +78 bps at 12.265%
    • Jan '26 +49 bps at 12.28%
    • Jan '31 +35 bps at 12.35%
  • Mexico TIIE Swaps:
    • 1-yr +12 bps at 6.605%
    • 2-yr +12.5 bps at 7.18%
    • 5-yr +7.5 bps at 7.55%
    • 10-yr +0.5 bps at 7.685%
  • Chile Camara Swaps:
  • 1-yr +14 bps at 5.03%
  • 2-yr +6 bps at 5.13%
  • 5-yr -4 bps at 5.35%
  • 10-yr -10 bps at 5.55%
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