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Rates, Stocks Near Highs, Different Reasons on Same Event Risk

US TSYS
  • Safe haven sentiment dominated markets early Monday following the surprise attack by Hamas against Israel over the weekend, tempered by a partial absence of US market participants due to the Columbus Day Holiday.
  • Treasury futures extended session highs in late trade (TYZ3: 107-29 high, +1-02 on light volume: 775k) after balanced comments from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasizing both the threat of more persistent inflation than expected as well as the possibility of a sharper growth slowdown than is currently on investors’ radar.
  • “I am particularly attentive to upside risks to inflation, such as those associated with the economy and labor market remaining too strong to achieve further disinflation, as well as risks associated with unexpected increases in energy prices,” said Jefferson.
  • Meanwhile, cross assets continued to gain: crude prices remain well bid (WTI +3.5 at 86.29), stocks recovering from early losses to near highs after hte bell (SPX Eminis +24.5 at 4366.0) led by oil and gas shares as well as defense stocks on the back of the Hamas surprise attack on Israel over the weekend.
  • Rate hike projections into early 2024 continue to moderate as rates head higher: November at 11.9% (22.2% this morning vs. 30.5% late Fri) w/ implied rate change of +3bp to 5.358%, December cumulative of 6.9bp (9.9bp this morning vs. 12.4bp late Fri) at 5.398%, January 2024 3.9bp (11.9bp Fri) at 5.368%. Fed terminal slips to 5.395% in Jan'24.
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