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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Rates Unchanged, Upside Inflation Risks, Growth Lower, Bond Purchases Remain
JGB futures are exhibiting weakness, -16 compared to settlement levels, but are sitting higher than the morning’s range.
- The BoJ kept its interest rates unchanged, which was widely expected. Focus largely rested on the forecast outlook, references to the weaker yen and planned bond purchases.
- The bank said it would buy government bonds in line with its March decision but dropped a footnote saying it had purchased about 6 trillion yen per month in the past.
- On the forecast side, for inflation the 2024 FY core CPI forecast was kept at 1.9%, but with upside risks. 2025 was nudged up to 1.9% (from 1.8% prior). The first 2026 forecast was at 2.1%.
- On growth, the 2024 FY forecast was nudged down to 0.8% from 1.2% prior. 2025 was kept at 1.0%, while 2026 is also seen at 1.0%.
- The cash curve bear-steepening has remained but has been pared. Yields are flat to 1bp higher versus 1-3bps higher at the lunch break. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.5bps higher at 0.914% versus the fresh YTD yield high of 0933%, set this morning.
- The swaps curve is holding a twist-steepener, pivoting at the 40s, with rates -5bps to +2bps. Swap spreads are tighter out to the 30-year.
- The local market is closed on Monday.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.