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Rates - What's priced in?

BONDS
  • A few questions regarding rate outlook for the ECB/Europe.
  • And despite most members seeing a hike as unlikely 2022.
  • Some ECB members, even some of the more Dovish, have clearly underlined that they were watching Inflation closely.
  • Option colour, has shown interest to bring hikes forward into earlier 2022, and this will likely pick up
  • OIS, now show ECB 8.5bps hike by Sep and 11.5bps by Oct.
  • US range is for 3.5/3.75 number of hikes by year end, and March is so far pricing 20bps hike.
  • A much more punchy outlook for the UK with 21bps for Feb and 100bps cumulative by Dec.
  • ALL EYES on data going forward.

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