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RBA Dated OIS Higher Ahead of RBA Minutes

STIR

Ahead of the release of the RBA Minutes for the May meeting, RBA-dated OIS pricing for meetings beyond September have firmed by 4-5bp. This comes after the market was caught off guard by the RBA's decision to raise the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85%, as only a 6% probability of such an outcome had been priced in.

  • A 20% chance of a 25bp hike in June is priced.
  • Terminal rate expectations sit at 3.97%, equal to the post-May hike high.
  • Year-end easing expectations have been scaled back to 16bp versus 24bp at the end of last week.

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Yesterday

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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