MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, March 13

MNI BRIEF: China Has Been In Communication With U.S. On Trade

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MNI BRIEF: China Consumer Satisfaction Up

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY68.6 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1728 Thurs; -0.64% Y/Y

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -62 BCF TO 1,698 BCF MAR 07 WK

MNI: US FEB FINAL DEMAND PPI +0.0%, EX FOOD, ENERGY -0.1%

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS -2K TO 220K IN MAR 08 WK

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

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STIR: RBA Dated OIS Pricing Firming Beyond February

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps firmer across 2025 meetings today, led by late-2025 contracts, ahead of US PPI data.

  • A 25bp rate cut in April remains fully priced (115%), while the probability of a February cut stands at 82%, based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%.
  • OIS pricing beyond February is now firmer compared to pre-Q4 CPI levels on 24 January, with the Aug-25 meeting up 14bps over the past week.
  • Historically, it would be highly unusual for the RBA to diverge from market expectations, particularly given its lack of any official or unofficial pushback—a stance it has actively taken in the past.
  • The last time the RBA defied market expectations by holding rates despite a 75%+ probability of a cut was April 2015, and before that, November 2012. In both instances, the RBA delivered a 25bp cut at the following meeting.

 

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RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps firmer across 2025 meetings today, led by late-2025 contracts, ahead of US PPI data.

  • A 25bp rate cut in April remains fully priced (115%), while the probability of a February cut stands at 82%, based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%.
  • OIS pricing beyond February is now firmer compared to pre-Q4 CPI levels on 24 January, with the Aug-25 meeting up 14bps over the past week.
  • Historically, it would be highly unusual for the RBA to diverge from market expectations, particularly given its lack of any official or unofficial pushback—a stance it has actively taken in the past.
  • The last time the RBA defied market expectations by holding rates despite a 75%+ probability of a cut was April 2015, and before that, November 2012. In both instances, the RBA delivered a 25bp cut at the following meeting.

 

Keep reading...Show less