CANADA PM CARNEY CANCELS PROPOSED CAPITAL GAINS TAX INCREASE

MNI BRIEF: FAIT Didn't Affect Fed's Covid Decisions - Williams

MNI: Fed Waller Prefers Faster QT Path, Wants Contingency Plan

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Enhance Easing On External Uncertainties

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, March 21

MNI China Press Digest March 21: Land Sales, Services, PBOC

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction On Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU-Bond Auction on Monday

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 593; OIL RIGS 486; GAS RIGS 102

GERMANY: Handelsblatt Report on Lingering Uncertainties Ahead of Bundestag

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

STIR: RBA Dated OIS Pricing Slightly Softer Ahead Of RBA Policy Decision

STIR
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across 2025 meetings, ahead of today's RBA Policy Decision with economists widely anticipating a 25bp rate cut. 

  • The RBA statement and updated forecasts will be released at 1430 AEDT, with Governor Bullock’s press conference at 1530 AEDT
  • A 25bp rate cut in April remains more than fully priced (122%), while the probability of a cut today stands at 85%, based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%.
  • Historically, it would be highly unusual for the RBA to diverge from market expectations, particularly given its lack of any official or unofficial pushback—a stance it has actively taken in the past.
  • The last time the RBA defied market expectations by holding rates despite a 75%+ probability of a cut was April 2015, and before that, November 2012. In both instances, the RBA delivered a 25bp cut at the following meeting.

 

Keep reading...Show less
158 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across 2025 meetings, ahead of today's RBA Policy Decision with economists widely anticipating a 25bp rate cut. 

  • The RBA statement and updated forecasts will be released at 1430 AEDT, with Governor Bullock’s press conference at 1530 AEDT
  • A 25bp rate cut in April remains more than fully priced (122%), while the probability of a cut today stands at 85%, based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%.
  • Historically, it would be highly unusual for the RBA to diverge from market expectations, particularly given its lack of any official or unofficial pushback—a stance it has actively taken in the past.
  • The last time the RBA defied market expectations by holding rates despite a 75%+ probability of a cut was April 2015, and before that, November 2012. In both instances, the RBA delivered a 25bp cut at the following meeting.

 

Keep reading...Show less