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STIR: RBA Dated OIS Sep-25 Meeting Has Softened 40bps Since Mid-November

STIR
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RBA-dated OIS pricing eased by 3-7bps across 2025 meetings today, extending the downward momentum following yesterday’s weak GDP print.

  • A 25bps rate cut is now fully priced for April, signaling increased market confidence in an earlier start to the easing cycle.
  • Expectations for the September meeting have softened by approximately 40bps over the past two weeks. In mid-November, a full 25bps cut wasn’t expected until August, underscoring a significant shift toward earlier rate cuts.
  • Despite the broader repricing, the likelihood of a December rate cut remains low, with the market assigning only a 5% probability. 

 

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RBA-dated OIS pricing eased by 3-7bps across 2025 meetings today, extending the downward momentum following yesterday’s weak GDP print.

  • A 25bps rate cut is now fully priced for April, signaling increased market confidence in an earlier start to the easing cycle.
  • Expectations for the September meeting have softened by approximately 40bps over the past two weeks. In mid-November, a full 25bps cut wasn’t expected until August, underscoring a significant shift toward earlier rate cuts.
  • Despite the broader repricing, the likelihood of a December rate cut remains low, with the market assigning only a 5% probability. 

 

Keep reading...Show less