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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
RBA-dated OIS pricing eased by 3-7bps across 2025 meetings today, extending the downward momentum following yesterday’s weak GDP print.
- A 25bps rate cut is now fully priced for April, signaling increased market confidence in an earlier start to the easing cycle.
- Expectations for the September meeting have softened by approximately 40bps over the past two weeks. In mid-November, a full 25bps cut wasn’t expected until August, underscoring a significant shift toward earlier rate cuts.
- Despite the broader repricing, the likelihood of a December rate cut remains low, with the market assigning only a 5% probability.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Yesterday
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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