RBA Focus Of Week, Expected To Leave Rates Unchanged

The focus of the week is Tuesday’s RBA meeting. Analysts and the market expect the Board to leave rates at 3.6% but the view is not unanimous. 9 of the 30 analysts surveyed on Bloomberg expect a 25bp hike. Governor Lowe will speak Tuesday evening at 2120 AEST. Some idea of the central bank’s forecast revisions are likely to be included in the meeting statement with the details published in Friday’s Statement on Monetary Policy.

• The other key event this week is likely to be the March retail sales data on Wednesday. They are projected to post another 0.2% m/m rise.
• Assistant RBA Governor Ellis (Economics) is scheduled to speak on Wednesday at the CEDA at 1455 AEST.
• On Monday, the Melbourne Institute’s inflation gauge for April prints. In March it eased to 5.7% from 6.3%.
• March trade data is published on Thursday and is expected to show a small narrowing in the trade surplus to $13.0bn from $13.87bn.
• Housing finance data for March is released on Friday and is forecast to decline by 0.3% m/m after falling 0.9% in the previous month.