RBA Governor, Labour & Survey Data This Week’s Highlights

The highlights of the week are likely to be RBA Governor Bullock’s speech on Tuesday at 0920 AEDT at the AusPayNet Summit and November employment data on Thursday. There is also a swathe of survey data.

• Thursday sees November employment data which is currently forecast to rise by 11k after last month’s stronger-than-expected 55k. The unemployment rate is expected to rise 0.1pp to 3.8%.
• On Tuesday, December Westpac consumer confidence is released. It fell sharply in November after the RBA hiked but with the central bank on hold this month, it may stabilise.
• The November NAB business survey is also on Tuesday and while it has slowed, has shown resilience. It will be monitored for signs of weakness and the price/cost measures will continue to be watched closely. Preliminary Judo Bank December PMIs are on Friday and have been signalling a contraction in activity.
• Overseas arrivals/departures for October are also due Tuesday and given the current uncertainty over whether strong migration is inflationary, it is likely to be watched.
• The November CBA household spending insights series is published on Wednesday. It is worth monitoring as it has a close correlation with ABS retail sales. It fell 1% m/m in October.
• Melbourne Institute inflation expectations for December are on Thursday and last month printed 0.1pp higher at 4.9%.
• RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Jones speaks on Thursday at 1130 AEDT at the Australasian Finance and Banking Conference.