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RBA Governor Lowe's opening stanza confirms.....>

RBA: RBA Governor Lowe's opening stanza confirms '19 GDP growth exp. will be
trimmed to 2.50% (prev. 2.75%) in today's SOMP as suggested in the statement
that accompanied Tuesday's cash rate decision, 2.75% in '20 (prev. 2.75%).
- Points to a lower inflation forecast for '19 (which is consistent with higher
unemployment, lower growth paradigm) as he notes that the point whereby the Bank
expects to reach the 2.00% mid-point of inflation target band has been pushed
out again (prev. seen in Q4 '19 for CPI Q2 '20 for trimmed mean) 2020 CPI is
seen a little under 2.00% in '20 & a little over 2.0% in 2021 (prev. assumptions
were for 2.0% in both, so likely reflects no change in today's SOMP when
compared to decimal estimates from prev. SOMP).
- Potential that the economy may have reached a "gentle turning point."
- Repeats call for help from fiscal spending.
- Repeats it is reasonable to expect extended period of low interest rates and
that the Bank is prepared to ease policy further if required, to meet its
inflation and employment goals.
- Highlights major uncertainty around Sino-U.S. trade dispute.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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