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RBA: MNI RBA Preview-Sept 2024: No Reason To Change Hawish Hold

RBA
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  • The RBA meets on Tuesday September 24 and is unanimously expected to leave rates at 4.35% despite the OECD trend to cut. RBA Governor Bullock has made it clear that it is too soon to discuss easing and that current conditions mean there won't be a cut in the "near term".
  • With the pause in monetary policy expected to be continued in September, the focus will be on the meeting statement and guidance. But with data since the August 6 meeting printing broadly in line with RBA expectations, and certainly since Bullock’s last speech on September 5, we don’t expect a shift in tone.
  • The July CPI data was difficult to interpret and thus the RBA is unlikely to read much into it and will wait for its preferred quarterly data before forming an opinion on inflation trends. Thus a rate cut before the February 2025 meeting at the earliest seems unlikely.
  • See full preview here.
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  • The RBA meets on Tuesday September 24 and is unanimously expected to leave rates at 4.35% despite the OECD trend to cut. RBA Governor Bullock has made it clear that it is too soon to discuss easing and that current conditions mean there won't be a cut in the "near term".
  • With the pause in monetary policy expected to be continued in September, the focus will be on the meeting statement and guidance. But with data since the August 6 meeting printing broadly in line with RBA expectations, and certainly since Bullock’s last speech on September 5, we don’t expect a shift in tone.
  • The July CPI data was difficult to interpret and thus the RBA is unlikely to read much into it and will wait for its preferred quarterly data before forming an opinion on inflation trends. Thus a rate cut before the February 2025 meeting at the earliest seems unlikely.
  • See full preview here.