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RBC Ahead Of BoS/CSCE Surveys

CANADA
  • A very strong Dec labour market report has tilted odds towards the BoC hiking another 25bp s on Jan 25, but any downside surprise in CPI or a dovish tone in the BOS could make that decision a closer call.
  • We expect the BOS to show an ongoing deterioration in the outlook for future sales as of late last year, consistent with mfg PMI data.
  • While broader global supply chain disruptions have continued to ease, labour shortages remained acute with job openings still high and the number of available unemployed workers low.
  • The BoC will be watching longer-run business inflation expectations and wage plans—particularly after both measures showed signs of easing in the prior BOS.
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