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RBC Below Consensus For CPI Tomorrow

CANADA
  • RBC expect headline CPI to have edged up from 7.7% to 8.0% Y/Y (cons. 8.4% Y/Y) for the highest since 1982.
  • The latest rise was likely largely driven by higher food and energy prices – both of which have been boosted by global pressures as oil prices increased another 4.8% from May and consumer food prices surged.
  • With some of the global price pressures (adding half the recent inflation) showing clear signs of easing, with shipping costs/times declining and wheat prices reversing, RBC are “cautiously optimistic that price growth will slow in the near-term”.
  • The largest domestic driver has been higher house prices – and those have also shifted into reverse as rate hikes cool housing markets.
  • However, inflation pressures are unlikely to ease sustainably to the BoC’s 1% to 3% target range until the economy, and labour markets, have cooled substantially.
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