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RBC: Data Consistent With July GDP Early Estimates, Mixed August

CANADA
  • Released tomorrow at 0830ET, RBC note that data releases have been broadly consistent with the early estimate for July suggesting GDP was ‘essentially unchanged’ from the month before.
  • Part of the surprise weakness in Q2 (-0.2% annualized) can be attributed to ‘transitory’ factors, including the federal government workers’ strike in April and wildfire-related disruptions to mining sector output.
  • But the softening momentum looks to have been extended into Q3, where a flat July would leave output running at ~0.4% annualized below the Q2 average. That’s broadly in line with our -0.5% forecast for Q3.
  • To be sure, the preliminary estimate for August output could read better—given both employment and hours worked bounced back in that month.
  • However, housing markets also cooled further as resales declined outright for a second consecutive month, and spending on discretionary items also continued to flag, with motor vehicle sales continuing on its downward trend in August.
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