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RBC in "Lean Cut" Camp Ahead of OPEC Meeting

OIL

OPEC has two options at its meeting this weekend according to RBC in a research note – deeper cuts or staying the course.

  • The bank views the meeting being in person as raising the possibility of deeper cuts due to macro concerns and demand softness.
  • RBC does not believe that Saudi Arabia is frustrated enough about market share loss in Asia that it is seeking to repeat the March 2020 production battle with Russia.
  • Though the bank believes that having an in-person meeting provides OPEC with considerable latitude for a deeper cut, it does not rule out that the group stays the course on the current agreement.
  • April’s surprise cuts showed that the group is not bound to a formal meeting schedule to make adjustments, it said that “maximum optionality appears to be the prevailing mantra at the moment”.
  • Due to price weakness, RBC places itself in the in the “lean cut” camp at the upcoming meeting.
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