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RBC: Latest Core CPI Trend Could Tick Higher But To Remain Low

CANADA
  • RBC see headline CPI slow from 2.7% to 2.6% Y/Y in May.
  • “The BoC will be focused on their preferred core measures for evidence that a broadly based slowdown in price growth in 2024 is continuing.”
  • “The closely watched three-month rolling averages for the CPI-trim and CPI-median measures will likely tick higher but remain relatively low after unusually soft readings left both under the 2% inflation target over the last two months.”
  • “The breadth of inflation pressures has continued to ease with the share of consumer products seeing inflation above a 3% annual rate back close to its historical rate in April.”
  • “A softening economic growth backdrop has made it more likely that Canadian inflation pressures will not reaccelerate the way they did in the United States earlier this year.”
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