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RBC On Employment Report

CANADA
  • The 40k rise in employment in May was despite an exceptionally limited supply of labour, with hours also dipping. The u/e rate edged to a new low of 5.1%.
  • Demand for labour is far stronger than jobs growth, putting upward pressure on wages. Job openings were running more than 70% above pre-pandemic levels, but there are 9% fewer available unemployed workers.
  • Wage growth has been slower to respond, but AHE growth climbed to 3.9% Y/Y and 4.5% Y/Y for permanent employees.
  • The exceptionally tight labour market will only add to pressure for the BoC to move quickly despite some signs of easing in global supply chain pressures in recent weeks. They look for another 50bp hike in July.
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