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RBC on Fed Building In More Aggressive Hiking Cycle

FED

RBC analysts said "not only is the Fed building in a more aggressive hiking cycle than we thought they had the stomach to acknowledge (at this juncture), but it also comes with nascent recognition that transitory may not be the right word to describe the inflation dynamic."

  • "The movement in the dots was notable. Our hunch was they would show 2 hikes in each of '23 and '24 but they surprised us (pleasantly) and built in 3 per year. They certainly chose a more realistic approach, but even 3/year is probably a little light. Still, we acknowledge that there is a lot of ground to cover between now and then.
  • One last thing on the dots. It's worth highlighting that nearly half the Committee expects funds will hold a 2-handle in 2024 (the high was 2.625%). That feels like the right starting point to have a conversation about terminal funds."
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