RBC On The Global Supply Picture

RBC note that “the scramble for additional barrels to fill what could balloon to a 3-4mn bpd Russian export deficit will undoubtedly move into warp speed this week with the White House signalling a willingness to embargo Russian oil and key energy market participants continuing to head for the exit lest they stand accused of war profiteering. This could prove to be a tall order as immediate OPEC spare capacity currently rests with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, and we estimate that these four countries could only bring on between 2.0-2.5mn bpd in the next 30-60 days. Hence, the White House’s new outreach to Venezuela and the ongoing effort to secure an Iran nuclear agreement that would lead to the lifting of sanctions.”