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RBC On Tuesday’s Key CPI Report

CANADA
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  • RBC expect CPI inflation to slow from 2.9% to 2.7% Y/Y in April despite higher gasoline prices.
  • CPI ex food & energy is seen slowing from 2.9% to 2.6% Y/Y, with the pace of mortgage interest rate cost inflation gradually slowing.
  • RBC expect the BoC to put more weight on the median and trim measures, after the average dropped to 3.0% Y/Y in March to the top of the 1-3% inflation target for the first time since 2021.
  • Being “the last major data release” before the June BoC decision, “absent an upside surprise, we think the soft conditions in the economy and labour markets should warrant a 25-bps interest rate cut from the BoC in June.”
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  • RBC expect CPI inflation to slow from 2.9% to 2.7% Y/Y in April despite higher gasoline prices.
  • CPI ex food & energy is seen slowing from 2.9% to 2.6% Y/Y, with the pace of mortgage interest rate cost inflation gradually slowing.
  • RBC expect the BoC to put more weight on the median and trim measures, after the average dropped to 3.0% Y/Y in March to the top of the 1-3% inflation target for the first time since 2021.
  • Being “the last major data release” before the June BoC decision, “absent an upside surprise, we think the soft conditions in the economy and labour markets should warrant a 25-bps interest rate cut from the BoC in June.”