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RBC: Raised Odds That BoC Hikes At Least 75bp Next Week

CANADA
  • RBC note that the BoC’s business survey showed expected futures sales growth slowing although near-term momentum is reasonably solid and production capacity remains a bigger issue than a shortfall in orders.
  • “Most businesses still expect current inflation pressures to ease beyond the next 2-3 years with higher interest rates, improved supply chains, and the end of the conflict in the Ukraine cited as some of the more important drivers. But the share expecting inflation will remain significantly above the BoC's 2% price target beyond the next 3 years continued to edge higher” and long-term consumer inflation expectations increased back to pre-pandemic levels.
  • In order to prevent longer-run inflation expectations from becoming unhinged, “we expect today's survey only further raises the odds that the central bank will follow the U.S. Fed with at least a 75bp hike in July.”
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