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Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish


Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High


'Big Tech' Bill Goes To Senate


Oil Up For Fifth Week On Supply Disruption, Geopolitics

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  • RBC are below consensus for non-farm payrolls in Nov, with total up +475k (cons. 545k) and private up +425k (cons. 525k).
  • They note leisure and hospitality as a continued major source of uncertainty. The sector tends to shed jobs in Nov on a not seasonally adjusted basis, but RBC expects a smaller than usual decline this time around which in turn drives a solid seasonally adjusted gain.
  • They caution on the uncertainty behind these figures: “if you told us the number was going to be +/- 100k better than our forecast, it would be hard to argue forcibly against it given all of the “static” coming out of that sector”.
  • Having leaned towards the upside last month, they now lean against the upside.
  • They see the unemployment rate improving from 4.6% to 4.5% against this backdrop.