-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
Commodities
Real-time insight of oil & gas markets
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessRBC Sees Upside USD/JPY Risks, Which IS Against The Consensus
RBC Outlines the rationale for its bullish USD/JPY view: "Of 41 up-to-date forecasts in Bloomberg’s survey for USD/JPY, 40 have an end- year forecast below spot and the vast majority of these have a forecast which is also below the forward rate (129). Risk in FX markets is rarely as asymmetric as this implies. RBC is the one forecaster that has end-year above spot (140), though the gains we expect are modest – more like an extension of the uptrend this year than a resumption of the 2023 surge. "
"As far as we can tell USD/JPY bearishness is driven by a combination of the widespread negative view on USD generally and the specific impact of the BoJ’s widely- anticipated exit from YCC. We don’t disagree with the view that the end of YCC is coming (though we expect no change from BoJ this week). Where we differ from the consensus view is in its relative importance, compared to the other paradigm shift JPY-based investors are adapting to – the move away from zero rates in the rest of the DM world – and what this has done to the cost of hedging.
"The Lifers’ investment plans for this fiscal year – released over the last few days – show ongoing plans to reduce holdings of hedged foreign bonds . While this is happening, we think it highly likely they are also cutting hedge ratios on bonds they are retaining, leaving domestic investors USD/JPY buyers. In the longer- term, this will drive USD/JPY higher, though we don’t rule out shorter- term bouts of selling from outside Japan, particularly around BoJ policy announcements. A deep US and global recession would upend our forecasts, but is not in our central forecast."
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.