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Free AccessRBC Sticks With April Liftoff
Going against OIS pricing in a 97% chance of a hike in the Mar 2 meeting, RBC hasn’t outright changed its previous call for rate lift-off on Apr 13 although acknowledges risks of coming earlier.
- RBC’s previous call had been for lift-off in April, “though three months looks like a long time when the economy is already at full capacity and inflation is expected to remain elevated over 1H22”.
- They now see upside risk to their call of 3 hikes in 2022 if it does start in March, but still think market pricing of more than five rate hikes is too aggressive.
- The Bank clearly indicated upcoming meetings are ‘live’ for rate hikes with economic slack having been absorbed.
- “The fact that its next meeting is a short five weeks away may have contributed to the BoC’s patience” whilst not hiking yesterday “also allows for a more graceful exit from its forward guidance than if the BoC hiked in Jan after reiterating its “middle quarters of 2022” guidance in Dec.
- Balance sheet normalisation is seen in 1H22 but most tightening will come from rates and not shrinking its balance sheet.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.