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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Ahead of the RBNZ policy decision (0300 BST), NZ STIR has softened by 1-2bp across meetings. The market is currently pricing in 28bp of tightening for today, with BBG consensus expecting a 25bp hike (compared to the 50bp hike in February).
- NZ STIR has basically maintained pricing of a 25bp hike today through the eye of the banking crisis storm. Moreover, it has done it despite news that the NZ economy wasn’t running as strongly as the RBNZ was expecting at the end of 2022.
- Economists are divided on the likelihood of additional tightening after today's expected hike. While some anticipate the RBNZ will emphasize the need for further rate hikes to achieve its 1-3% inflation target, others are less convinced. Currently, RBNZ dated OIS is pricing in an additional 25bp of tightening (assuming a 25bp hike today) by July.
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS: Today Vs. Yesterday
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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