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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Q3 CPI. Bloomberg consensus expects +1.9% q/q and +5.9% y/y versus +1.1% and +6.0% in Q2. Q3 is expected to be boosted by higher accommodation and insurance prices plus increased government charges including public transport.
- The RBNZ is likely to look through the data if it’s in line with expectations as it forecasted a strong Q3 outcome of 2.1% q/q and 6% y/y in August, higher than the Bloomberg consensus. Also, at its October meeting, it said it was focused on the medium term.
- Nonetheless, easing inflation may spur investors to dial back their expectations for another rate hike. RBNZ dated OIS pricing is 1-2bps firmer today, with terminal OCR expectations at 5.72% (+22bps).
Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS Terminal Rate Pricing (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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