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RBNZ Dated OIS - Expected Terminal OCR Moves Higher Post-Budget

STIR

Yesterday’s more expansionary than expected Budget delivers a fiscal impulse that moves into positive territory next year. The market has taken this to be inflationary with a resultant shift firmer in NZ STIR.

  • RBNZ dated OIS has firmed 12-32bp post-Budget across meetings with early ’24 leading.
  • 40bp of tightening is priced for next week’s RBNZ meeting.
  • Terminal Rate expectations lift to a new cycle high of 5.92%.

Figure 1: RBNZ Dated OIS: Terminal Rate Expectations



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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