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Re-Basing & Energy Subsidies Add Uncertainty to German CPI Print (1/3)

GERMAN DATA
MNI (London)

The German January flash inflation data due on Thursday will provide a substantial degree of clarity, following the Eurostat estimate implemented in the eurozone flash HICP print which implied a substantial downside surprise for January (more on this in the PDF here)

  • Bloomberg estimates are dispersed and skewed to the downside of the median +10.0% y/y. The mean is 9.71% (so showing a big negative skew), and the standard deviation is 0.67%.
  • If we surprise to the upside relative to the 10.0% median estimate, we expect that we'd see a bigger market response than we would to a downside surprise. This is partly because an upside surprise would mean we'd need an even bigger revision to the Eurozone HICP print (which we calculated was using an estimate of between 7.9%Y/Y and 8.6%Y/Y for Germany).
  • There are two key uncertainties to the print that we will discuss in upcoming bullets.
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