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Real GDI Again Offers A Much Weaker Take To GDP Beat

US DATA
  • Real GDP may have come in stronger than expected with its upward revision to 1.27% annualized but once again real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) provided a stark contrast.
  • First data for real GDI showed a -2.3% annualized decline in Q1 after -3.3% in Q4, leaving an average for the two at just -0.5% annualized after -0.4% in Q4.
  • We should caveat this by noting that historical revisions have been significant – in the opposite case to now, strength in GDI vs GDP in early 2022 was surprisingly revised away – but it nevertheless offers a weaker take on today’s GDP data.
  • Note that the latest estimate for Q2 GDP from the Atlanta Fed isn’t showing any signs of this weakness, running at 2.9% as of the May 18 update.

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