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Real PCE Tracking Revised Higher On Earlier Trade Data

US DATA
  • Whilst largely in line for the overall balance, the earlier international trade data saw sufficiently strong signs of spending on international travel to see the Atlanta Fed revise up its real PCE tracker from 3.8% to 5.2% for Q1.
  • If sustained/accurate, it would register the fastest quarter of PCE growth since 2Q21 as the economy surged under re-opening.
  • In doing so it pushed the GDPNow estimate up from yesterday’s 2.0% to 2.6%, one of the stronger readings for the current vintage.
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