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Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup


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Real Yields And USD Relationship Reverses With ECB

  • The relationship between US real yields and broad dollar moves has reversed today, having held up well through the hiking cycle.
  • t comes as EURUSD fell back below parity after the ECB decision and press conference, with DXY just shy of session highs but the 10Y real yield falling 10bp on the day as another central bank is now seen hiking by less than had been expected following the BoC yesterday with terminal rate expectations slashed for both.
  • The broad trend remains in place with DXY down ~3% since real yields have fallen more than 30bps from last week’s peak but today’s latest moves bear watching.

US 10y real yield (white) and DXY (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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